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Richard, the mayor has a strong base in this city that I feel you're ignoring. City employees will take him as the lesser of all the evils (to them), they are better organized and will turn out to vote in numbers. Also many voters choose to go with what they know. Which is why congress has such low approval ratings yet incumbents get sent back every year. To give you a number I think it could take over 3,000 votes. No candidate has ever won saying "if I just get this tiny block of voters i'll win." The mayor has a lot of money and a lot of support. While I think it is possible for Stacia to win I think many people are taking it for granted.
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